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Technical Update
Bob Dickey
MANAGING DIRECTOR RESEARCH
for RBC Dain Rauscher Wessels
We believe quieter and more choppy action is likely
during the next two trading days. The bullish
holiday spirit will be offset by the overbought condition of a market
that has already had a dramatic advance, in our opinion. We believe
a correction is developing, however, as the indices and many of
the key, large-cap stocks are at resistance. For most, pullbacks
of 5% to 10% should be the norm, while some areas will likely hold
up better. The healthcare sector continues to stand out as a top
performer and is still early in the bullish cycle, with the biotech
group being the most timely buy within that market area, in our
opinion. Retailers and financials are generally at resistance now,
as are the bigger tech stocks. We believe traders should act accordingly.
more at Make-Cents.com
Concourse Securities
Revising the overheated phenomenon of short-term tech indices
Stock market continued Monday's bullish momentum and opened with
high price on Tuesday morning. Then the market was dragged down
by the falling of Ali (5393), the leading stock of this wave of
rebound, resulting in the market moving fluctuant. But with the
support of the finance sector, the main board stocks didn't go down
too deep. The index downgraded to 92 points in the end, while the
volume broke the record high again. The highest level, 4605 points,
on Tuesday should not be the final level, therefore, the short-term
indices still have the chance to break through the level of 4605.
The reason why the indices went down on Tuesday was to technically
revise the overheated indices. The short-term support was at 4276
level, which only has 179 points' difference from the closing price
on Tuesday, the indices, therefore, should be pullback with limitation.
As for the individual stocks, the finance sector did soar up as
expected, but it didn't seem to have the momentum to keep going
up. As for the electronics sector, the indices finally showed the
sign of pullback after rebounding up to 50%, and it can be sure
that the pullback of the electronics sector was only the revision
of lifting considerably. Investors can start to arrange their portfolio
in advance, and the gains are expectable.
more at Make-Cents.com
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Research News
CSFB
•
Adding
Compaq To Focus List; Target Price of $14
•
Gadzooks.
Inc. (GADZ) CP:$ 11.75 TP:$ 20 CAP:$ 107.1m H
•
Intuit
(INTU) CP:$ 39.79 TP:$ 52 CAP:$ 8.4b B
•
TriQuint
Semiconductor (TQNT) CP:$ 19.55 TP:$ N/A CAP:$ 2.5b H
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Argus Market Report
•
MARKET REVIEW
• Ratings
Change: Yahoo! and eBay downgraded to near-term SELL after run up
in price.
•
Focus List: Microsoft close to a civil antitrust lawsuit settlement.
•
Value
Stocks: BUY-rated COC and BUY-rated P to merge.
•
Utility
Scope: Lowering 2001 EPS estimate on BUY-rated OGE; reiterating
price target of $24.
Market Review
For the fourth consecutive week, claims for unemployment benefit
insurance fell unexpectedly. During the
week ended November 17, jobless claims fell 15,000 to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 427,000. Meanwhile, the total number of
persons receiving benefits fell by 65,000 during the week ended
November 10.This was a considerable drop from the 18-year high registered
during the previous week. The total Number of persons receiving
unemployment benefit insurance was last at 3.734 million persons.
Despite this welcomed trend, we fear that claims will rise in coming
months, especially as those record September and October layoff
announcements are realized.
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RBC Dain Rauscher Wessels
•
(ADI)
Analog Devices, Inc. 11/21/2001Neutral
•
(AMGN)
Amgen Inc. 11/21/2001
Buy-Average ; Price Target: $70.00
•
(ARMHY)
ARM Holdings plc 11/21/2001 Neutral
•
(CHZ)
Chittenden Corporation 11/21/2001 Neutral
(ADI) Analog
Devices, Inc. 11/21/2001
Neutral
SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY
ANALOG DEVICES THE SLIDE CONTINUES
Analog Devices reported fourth-quarter fiscal year 2001 revenues
of $423 million, well below our estimates and guidance, with pro-forma
EPS of $0.14, ahead of estimates due to a favorable tax rate.
The company continues to guide revenues down for the first quarter
of fiscal 2002, as demand continues to slide.
We are maintaining our Neutral rating on ADI shares, as current
valuations are well ahead of fundamentals.
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